The macro economy has two important indicators, one is CPI, the other is PMI. CPI is familiar to all of us and has a certain guiding significance to monetary policy. PMI, which we rarely say, has a low level of cognition. This article analyzes the future economy from the point of view of PMI.
The English index of PMI index is Purchasing Managers'Index. The Chinese meaning is the purchasing manager index. It is an index collected from the monthly survey of purchasing managers, reflecting the trend of economic change. PMI is a set of monthly and comprehensive economic monitoring index system, which is divided into manufacturing industry PMI, service industry PMI, and some countries have established construction industry PMI. The PMI 50 index for the ups and downs of the waterline.
Let's look back at the PMI index in 2017. In 2017, the overall trend of manufacturing PMI rose steadily, with an annual average value of 51.6%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the total level of last year, indicating that the development trend of manufacturing industry stable and good is becoming more obvious. In the month of December, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 51.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, but it still reached the annual average level, and has been at a high level of 51% for 15 consecutive months. Compared with the previous month, the 7 indexes such as production and new orders decreased slightly, less than 0.5 percentage points, and 6 indexes such as new export orders, purchase prices and factory prices rose, and the purchase price index increased significantly. From December data, manufacturing PMI still has strong expansion power, production index and new order index are 54% and 53.4%, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points lower than last month, but still higher than the annual average value 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points. Moreover, the new kinetic energy accelerated growth. The PMI of high tech manufacturing industry was 53.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month. Its annual mean value is obviously higher than that of last year and the total level of manufacturing industry, leading the manufacturing economy to move towards high quality.
From the data, we can see that by the recovery of the world economy and the acceleration of Global trade growth, the new export orders index and import index all increased for two consecutive months. In December, they were 51.9% and 51.2%, respectively, up 1.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. At present, the supply and demand growth is stable, inventory level is at a low level, prices continue to rise, the acceleration has accelerated, the employment situation is stable, the company's production and operation situation is good, the prospect is optimistic, and the economic operation is stable.
In addition to the active manufacturing industry, the non manufacturing sector has also extended a steady and rapid expansion. In 2017, the annual mean value of non manufacturing business activity index was 54.6%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the total level of last year. It has been maintained at a relatively high level and continues to expand steadily and rapidly. In the month of December, the non manufacturing business activity index was 55%, higher than last month's 0.2 percentage points, the high point in the four quarter, and the pace of expansion at the end of the year accelerated. Among them, the new orders, new export orders and employment index increase QoQ, increase between 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points; the orders in hand, inventories, prices of inputs, sales price, supplier delivery time and business activity index is expected to decline, a decline of between 0.2 to 1.4 percentage points. Since 2017, except for August, the index has maintained a high level of over 54%, and the annual mean value increased by 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year, reaching 54.6%. This indicates that the non manufacturing industry will continue to develop well on the basis of steady and rapid growth. December non manufacturing business activity index and the new orders index rose continuously, sales price index remained stable at 52%, the employment index rose slightly above 49%, the annual average index were better than the same period last year, indicating that the non manufacturing based on rapid growth, continue to sound better development. Meanwhile, in December, the index of business activity in service industry was 53.4%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month. The fourth quarter index is always in the boom area of about 53.5%, and the overall operation is stable, indicating that the service industry continues to maintain a good momentum of development.
From the data, it can be seen that the economic operation in 2017 has been stable and stable, which laid a good foundation for the economic development in 2018. From the expected index, enterprises are full of confidence in the new year's economic development. From the macroeconomic point of view, the PMI index often has a leading role in the CPI index, and PMI is booming, and CPI will not continue to be depressed. We are full of confidence in the economic development of China in 2018.
